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Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby marc0193 on Tue Jun 04, 2013 6:51 pm

From the Lord wiki found at http://nuklearlord.wikia.com/wiki/Mystical_Skills

"Guessing Mystical Skills Edit
There are a few different ways to guess at the correct number. One is the 50/50 method, where you start with 50 and go up or down by roughly half of what's left, trying to narrow it down to a small margin. Some players hedge their bets often using this method and nudge a guess toward one half or the other (Example: 50 -> 80, instead of 75, hoping it's above 80)
Another method is the 33 method. Used by tikel and a few others, it is sometimes confused with the Switching Method that tikel also employs for leveling up. This method uses 33 as the first number, guaranteeing a right guess if it's below that, and 83 as the 2nd number if it's higher.
Here are the numbers:
1. 33
2. if lower (than 33) 17
3. ±8
4. ±4
5. ±2
6. only one possible answer

2. if higher (than 33) 83
3. ±8
4. ±4
5. ±2
6. if the number on step 5 is 98 then you have 1/4 chance to get the right answer and for any other number between 69-95 you will get the right number.
Assuming the RNG is truly random, both the 50/50 method and the 33 method (you would actually need to guess 32 to guarantee success if you see "lower"; as stated above, you would have to guess between 1 and 2) have a 63% chance of success. In fact, it is possible to choose any 63 numbers ahead of time and employ a strategy that will succeed if the correct answer is one of those 63 numbers.
If you have fully mastered your Mystical skills, and you guess correctly, the old man rewards you with 4 bonus M points for that day only."



Here are the numbers:
1. 33
Range [1-100] Guess #1 33, Old man says higher

............

2. if higher (than 33) 83
Range [34-100] Guess #2 83, Old man says lower

3. ±8
Range [34-82] Guess #3 (83-8) 75, Old man says lower

4. ±4
Range [34-74] Guess #4 (75-4) 71, Old man says lower

5. ±2
Range [34-70] Guess #5 (71-2) 69, Old man says lower

6. if the number on step 5 is 98 then you have 1/4 chance to get the right answer and for any other number between 69-95 you will get the right number.
Range [34-69] Guess #6 is well anywhere between 34-69.so if it’s between 69-95 you’re golden, if it’s not you're SOL? With this method we completely disregard 34-68 for the duration of guessing?

What exactly did I miss here? Please and thanks. Or is that truly the strategy for this method? Seems illogical to me to eliminate 35% of the numbers off the bat.

On a side note, falknhayn, why does your Bot suggest 86 first? Is the random factor not entirely random and favors higher numbers or did you flip a coin between that and 14?
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby falknhayn on Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:04 pm

There is no skew toward lower or higher numbers that I know of.

Over the last 5 rounds I've played the numbers are fairly even with 17 numbers below or equal to 50 and 20 numbers above 50.

Lord bot suggests 69 first but starting with 32 would yield the same results.

No matter what method you use (32, 69, or 50), the probability of guessing correctly is 63%. So it's just personal preference which method you use.
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby marc0193 on Tue Jun 04, 2013 10:22 pm

falknhayn wrote:There is no skew toward lower or higher numbers that I know of.

Over the last 5 rounds I've played the numbers are fairly even with 17 numbers below or equal to 50 and 20 numbers above 50.

Lord bot suggests 69 first but starting with 32 would yield the same results.

No matter what method you use (32, 69, or 50), the probability of guessing correctly is 63%. So it's just personal preference which method you use.


It was entirely my mistake in my post to say that Lord Bot suggests 86 as your first guess. I was trying to go from memory and mine is shot. My fault. No disrespect intended. I find your probabilities more accurate than how the wiki's guide would suggest you play it out.
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby Ugly Duckling on Wed Jun 05, 2013 12:15 am

I like to keep it simple. I use the 50/50 method. No need to use any other fancy methods. Besides, it makes my head hurt trying to crunch all those numbers. ::boozles::
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby the mystical one on Wed Jun 05, 2013 7:44 pm

Basically, yes. With the 33 method, you throw out a certain set of numbers.

Any method you use is going to exclude 37 numbers in total.

(For 33 method, the numbers between 33 and 83 aren't entirely thrown out... there are a few in there that you'll weedle down to always.. just not many)
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby marc0193 on Wed Jun 05, 2013 8:45 pm

the mystical one wrote:Basically, yes. With the 33 method, you throw out a certain set of numbers.

Any method you use is going to exclude 37 numbers in total.

(For 33 method, the numbers between 33 and 83 aren't entirely thrown out... there are a few in there that you'll weedle down to always.. just not many)


I just don't see how it makes any sense that if you guess 33 first and it's higher, guess 83 next and if it's lower, you guess -8 or 75; instead of trying to go in the middle somewhere.

and i'm still not understanding how 37 numbers are excluded. if you guess 33 first and it's higher, you exclude 1-32. if you guess 83 next and it's lower, you exclude 84-100. that alone is 48 numbers, right? (1-32 and 84-100) 32+16 =48 that you wouldn't guess, and 34-83 you could guess between, which is 50 choices. just don't see how going 83-8 is the best option without trying to go somewhere in between to narrow your 4th guess. yes, if you guess 75 and it's higher you are good, i get that.
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby Buchwald on Wed Jun 05, 2013 8:53 pm

You guess 83, because if it is higher than 83, you have a 100% chance of getting it.

All optimal methods with cover exactly 63 possible results.
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby Jessrond on Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:15 pm

The difference between 33/83 and 68/16 and starting 50 is that if the number is lower than 33 or higher than 68, you've guaranteed you will get it right.

Starting at 50, you'll never guarantee you'll get it right on the first guess, but the range of numbers it could still be on guess 6 will be smaller than if you guessed the wrong direction with 33/68.
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Re: Looking for clarification re: guessing mystical skills

Postby clarkfk on Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:22 pm

Years ago, I made this helpful sheet for breaking down the Mystical Skills guessing game. It is based off the halving method. There is no guarantee that you'll always guess the correct number, but perhaps it will help you get closer - it has for me!

Always start with 50. The numbers at the top will tell you what branch goes to which guess. The numbers at the bottom, I can't remember what they were for so just ignore them.

0-100.jpg
A helpful sheet for the Magic Skills guessing game.
0-100.jpg (127.94 KiB) Viewed 754 times
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